Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 13.562902 15.815629 18.276941 21.159237 24.435079 28.035349 32.284449
2024-10-27 10.055636 13.122407 16.805685 21.524303 27.374465 34.352502 43.265251
2024-11-03 8.341327 11.970393 16.686522 23.187381 31.826223 42.811461 57.719534
2024-11-10 6.930447 10.818277 16.231287 24.177060 35.372380 50.384563 71.793035
2024-11-17 5.879828 9.897909 15.845408 25.069006 38.736004 57.906990 86.406464
2024-11-24 4.824077 8.730906 14.860016 24.867325 40.401723 63.106439 98.149711
2024-12-01 3.859562 7.500618 13.545193 23.914063 40.734729 66.283955 107.113696
2024-12-08 3.141964 6.535754 12.479521 23.156613 41.195774 69.575328 116.378344
2024-12-15 2.709556 5.994163 12.029490 23.323254 43.096333 75.167033 129.511030
2024-12-22 2.287412 5.384446 11.354725 22.987277 44.075987 79.307511 140.586843
2024-12-29 2.108242 5.228939 11.490551 24.104762 47.635134 87.901813 159.430533
2025-01-05 1.888573 4.942357 11.324799 24.622971 50.148145 94.884517 176.025933
2025-01-12 1.658696 4.598037 11.013752 24.864364 52.255564 101.467133 192.664359
2025-01-19 1.456189 4.276949 10.705639 25.078621 54.344467 108.204044 210.105855
2025-01-26 1.398810 4.303152 11.153488 26.897322 59.694124 121.190378 239.420531
2025-02-02 1.293892 4.184117 11.256184 27.992359 63.704993 131.993398 265.496498
2025-02-09 1.193631 4.055520 11.315654 28.994266 67.606686 142.845796 292.314869
2025-02-16 1.036764 3.729752 10.850116 28.760162 68.919850 148.847751 310.500526
2025-02-23 0.861711 3.303681 10.061901 27.674394 68.307928 151.042892 321.613769
2025-03-02 0.723731 2.954129 9.407736 26.811991 68.075467 153.934484 334.189545
2025-03-09 0.645673 2.780690 9.195869 27.001362 70.187782 161.678332 356.657486
2025-03-16 0.558008 2.548564 8.779824 26.618946 70.952766 166.687419 373.976159
2025-03-23 0.532051 2.535226 8.992573 27.890224 75.668549 180.236864 409.182788